Optimal Backup Policy for Systems Against Cyber Threats and Physical Failures  
Author

Kenichiro Naruse

 

Co-Author(s)

Toshio Nakagawa

 

Abstract Modern computer systems must defend against both hardware failures and silent cyber threats like ransomware. A major challenge is the ”infection period,” where malware stays hidden and infected backups before being detected. This paper proposes an optimal backup policy that combines frequent ”normal backups” for hardware recovery with ”immutable backups” for data security. We develop a mathematical model to find the best backup timing by analyzing the physical failure rate, infection rate, detection delay, and backups unreadable rate. The goal is to optimize the number of normal backups n and the interval to minimize total operational costs. This paper shows that the best strategy shifts based on risk. When hardware
failure rate is low or backups unreadable rate is high, the system remains simple (n = 1) to avoid using corrupted data. As hardware risks increase, the system adds more layers (n ≥ 2) to ensure reliability. This provides a clear quantitative guide for administrators, replacing guesswork with a strategy that adapts to real-world threats.

 

Keywords Backup Policy, Resist Malware, Cyber Threats, Physical Failures, Immutable Backup
   
    Article #:  RQD2026-207
 

Proceedings of 31st ISSAT International Conference on Reliability & Quality in Design
August 5-7, 2026