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International Society of Science and Applied Technologies |
| Optimal Replacement Policy for Multi-State Resilient Systems under Non-Fatal Random Shocks | ||||
| Author |
Yong-Hao Lin
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| Co-Author(s) |
Ruey-Huei Yeh
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| Abstract | Most reliability models for multi-state systems (MSS)
assume that external shocks result in immediate system failure.
However, modern resilient systems frequently experience soft
failures—non-fatal shocks that degrade system performance
without causing total shutdown. In such cases, the system
continues operating at a reduced performance level while
undergoing self-recovery. This study develops a comprehensive reliability framework incorporating internal degradation, external random shocks, and resilience mechanisms. A continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is constructed to characterize system state transitions, introducing the concept of “Virtual Operable States” to model soft failure dynamics explicitly. A cost model is further developed to evaluate the long-run expected cost rate and determine the optimal preventive replacement threshold. The proposed framework provides a realistic analytical foundation for evaluating systems with complex self-recovery capabilities. Numerical results demonstrate that neglecting non-fatal shocks leads to overestimating availability and underestimating lifecycle costs.
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| Keywords | Replacement policy, Continuous-time Markov chain, Non-fatal random shock, Resilience | |||
| Article #: RQD2026-137 | ||||
Proceedings of 31st ISSAT International Conference on Reliability & Quality in Design |