Reliability Analysis Based on Non-Homogeneous Continuous-Time Markov Modeling with Application to Repairable Pumps of a Power Plant  
Author Yao Hsu


Co-Author(s) Wen-Fang Wu; Tai-Wei Huang


Abstract To avoid equipment breakdown that may result in power outage, equipment maintenance is very important. However, maintenance always accompanies with cost and operating performance. Finding a balance between reducing risk of power outage and increasing cost through maintenance becomes an important issue for power plant owners. To this end, a repair related analytical model by non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain is constructed in this study. To consider the maintenance process which accords with the actual situations, we add not only the effect of time but also environmental factors for failure rate and repair rate into consideration to describe uncertainties of the process. Moreover, we consider not only the cycle of preventive maintenance but also the number of spare parts. Since it is difficult to obtain the analytic solution of transition probability in a non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain, we propose a method to find the numerical solution. In the end, the failure and repair data of pumps of a local power plant are applied into the proposed model. An optimal solution in consideration of the life cycle cost under a certain availability constraint is found through the model.


Keywords repairable model, non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain, proportional hazards model, availability
    Article #:  22065
Proceedings of the 22nd ISSAT International Conference on Reliability and Quality in Design
August 4-6, 2016 - Los Angeles, California, U.S.A.